BC Copper Rises Over 0.9% Intraday, SHFE Copper and BC Copper Price Spread Inversion Intensifies [SMM BC Copper Commentary]

Today, the most-traded BC copper contract opened at 69,970 yuan/mt and closed lower during the day. In the night session, BC copper moved downwards after a higher opening, dropping to a low of 69,620 yuan/mt before fluctuating upward, maintaining a sideways movement between 69,890 yuan/mt and 69,750 yuan/mt. During the daytime, the center of copper prices gradually rose as bears reduced their positions, then fell as bulls cut back, reaching a high of 71,120 yuan/mt near the end of the session, and finally closing at 71,100 yuan/mt, up 690 yuan/mt, with a gain of 0.98%. Open interest increased. On the macro front, after New York Fed President Williams signaled a possible interest rate cut, traders' expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts strengthened, leading to a weaker US dollar, which supported copper prices. The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to escalate, with geopolitical risks fueling market risk aversion, putting pressure on copper prices. Additionally, key data such as US initial jobless claims and the PCE index are set to be released, and their impact on the US dollar index will need to be closely monitored. Fundamentally, on the supply side, LME inventory increased by 1,850 mt to 157,950 mt, but high-quality copper resources remain tight domestically. On the demand side, the center of copper prices fell, boosting purchasing sentiment.

The SHFE copper 2509 contract closed at 78,940 yuan/mt. If the BC copper 2509 contract is priced at 71,100 yuan/mt, its post-tax price would be 80,343 yuan/mt. The price spread between the SHFE copper 2509 contract and the BC copper contract was -1,403 yuan/mt, remaining inverted and widening from the previous day.